On the flop

Once the flop has been dealt, five cards out of seven are now known to you. At this point, you should have a clear idea of how things will play out. The important question to ask yourself is how your hand connects to the flop. So doing will help you to determine the proper strategy to follow.
The ideal scenario occurs when you are holding what is known in the jargon as a “made hand”. A made hand is a combination that does not need improvement to win. However, most of the time you will have to read the board and analyze the odds, before you can determine if you have the winning combination.

In the examples as follows we will examine different flop combinations, in order to help you understand how best to play your hand.

An over-pair on the flop

	VS
84.85 %		15.15 %
	VS
73.64 %		26.36 %
	VS
91.62 %		8.38 %
	VS
81.62 %		18.38 %
	VS
27.07 %		72.93 %
	VS
10.51 %		89.49 %

An over-pair is a pocket pair with a higher rank than any of the community cards. For example, any hand in which the rank of your pair is superior to the rank of any of the cards on the board.

A flop with all three cards ranking below your pocket pair is naturally good, but you should still keep in mind that you have not yet won the pot. Up against a high card (over-card), such as an Ace, the pocket pair is still the favorite with an 85% chance of winning (i.e. Q-Q vs. A-10, flop J-5-2). Also, against two over-cards the pair is still the favorite with an edge of 73% (i.e. Q-Q vs. A-K, flop J-5-2).

Against an opponent with inferior pair in hand, the situation is even better. For example, you have a pair of Aces in hand while your opponent holds pair of Kings and the board reads J-5-2. Your opponent still has two favored cards, with only two more cards to come. Also, the odds are that your opponent will believe that he holds the better hand, and may end up risking (and losing) a larger pot.

Should your opponent hit two pairs on the flop, he will instantly become the favorite, with a 73% chance of winning. This leaves you with a 27% chance of improving with an over-pair or a three of a kind.

Finally, should your adversary pull a three of a kind, the chances of your over-pair winning become very slim: 10.51% vs 89.49% in favor of your opponent.

Flopping the top pair

	VS
81.82 %		12.12 %
	VS
91.21 %		8.79 %
	VS
78.18 %		21.82 %
	VS
81.62 %		18.38 %
	VS
18.38 %		81.62 %
	VS
16.67 %		82.83 %
	VS
1.62 %		98.38 %

A top pair is a pair formed by a pocket card and the highest ranking card on the board.

Most of the time, a top pair is a strong hand, especially if you have a decent kicker. A top pair with a good kicker versus a top pair with a bad kicker is favored to win the pot by 82%. For example, you have Q-J in hand, your opponent has a 10-J and the board reads J-5-2. Your Queen-the-kicker ensures that you have a better chance of winning.

A top pair against a smaller pocket pair is favored by 91% (i.e. Q-J vs. 8-8, board J-5-2). This is an excellent situation. Also, a top pair versus a second pair, despite your opponent having a stronger kicker, will still leave you a winner 78% of the time (i.e. Q-J vs. A-5, flop J-5-2).

On the other hand, holding a top pair against an over-pair, two pairs or a three of a kind is disastrous, with respectively 18%, 17% and 1,6% odds of winning the pot. As a result, we recommend that you be careful when holding a top pair, especially when your opponent suddenly starts to bet big. Sometimes, a single pair is just not enough.

Flopping a three of a kind

	VS
34.44 %		65.56 %

A three of a kind, also called a set or trips, is a hand that contains three cards of the same rank.

A Three of a kind at the flop is usually worth enough to risk all your chips, unless the board shows an obvious flush or straight. In that case, keep in mind that your hand still has a good chance of improving, about 34%, with a full house or quads on the turn or river.