Flopping a draw

If you did not hit a made hand on the flop, do not lose hope. There are enough cards left in the deck that will help to improve your hand, and hit for example a straight or a flush.

In other words, you can still try to win the pot.

In order to decide if it is profitable to play a specific draw, you first need to learn how to evaluate your chances of improving your existing hand. Take a look at the matchups presented as follows and see what it is you need to learn.

Flush Draw

A flush draw is an attempt to win by drawing a flush on the turn or the river. You should only attempt this move when you have a suit in hand and two of the same on the board.

	VS
37 %		62 %
	VS
31 %		68 %
	VS
16.36 %		82.12 %
	VS
45.86 %		54.14 %
	VS
35.56 %		64.44 %
	VS
25.56 %		74.44 %
	VS
47.37 %		52.63 %
	VS
53.74 %		46.26 %

Drawing a flush, when you have four cards of the same suite, two in the hole and two on the flop, usually has between a 35% and 50% chance of succeeding. Such hands can even be considered favorite if, for example, you have two overcards to the flop and to your opponents cards (As-Ks vs. 7-J, flop Js-5s-2).

However, should your opponent have a double pair or a set, this will seriously hurt your chances of improving your hand on the draw. An even worse situation would be to be up against an opponent holding a better flush draw. It is generally hard to determine if your opponent is attempting to “block” your outs by holding cards of the same suit, but it does help to illustrate the danger of playing a flush draw.

Straight Draw

A straight draw is an attempt to win by drawing a strait on the turn or the river.

	VS
18.69 %		81.31 %
	VS
34.24 %		65.76 %
	VS
30.1 %		69.9 %
	VS
25.86 %		74.14 %
	VS
50 %		50 %

Open-ended strait draws (i.e. a strait draw with eight outs such as 7-8 on a 5-6-X flop) are similar to flush draws in the way that they can be played. When you hit a straight draw, you have very good chances of beating even the best of made hands. However, a “gutshot” straight draw (i.e. four outs such as 7-8 on a 4-5-X flop) generally does not have a good chance of winning and should be played only in very specific conditions.

A straight isn't as strong as a flush, meaning that you will sometimes hit your straight but still lose against a better hand such as a flush or a full house. Therefore, you should avoid playing straight draws that could lose even if they hit.

On the other hand, some straight draws have the advantage of being less obvious than other possible plays, especially when the cards on the board are not sequential. For example a 5-7 on a 4-6-K flop. Many players will not pay attention to a straight if an 8 hits the turn or the river. There is only one possible straight and your opponent will never assume that you are holding a 5-7! In other words, you can potentially win big pots with some strait draws, so long as the pot compensates for the level of risk.

Don’t forget that the above probabilities only apply to the flop, when there are still two cards to come. Should you call a big bet on the flop thinking that the odds are right, keep in mind that you will be likely to face another big bet on the turn. If you haven't hit your draw by then, you should probably fold after seeing only one card, not two, as your odds will have drastically decreased.

Remember, once the flop is on the board, there remain 47 unseen cards, and game strategy now depends upon drawing the outs, or any unseen card that, if drawn, will improve your hand to the most likely win.